PhD project in Predicting the Unpredictable – Evaluating the effectiveness of a new generation of financial crisis prediction models against the issue of New Technologies

Overview

Proactively monitoring and assessing the economic health of financial institutions and financial systems has always been the primary objective of supervisory authorities and in turn, to policy makers. Financial crisis prediction models have been plentiful in the literature and very many have been of a post-hoc character, that is, they come after the event and retrospectively assess the success or otherwise of predicting the flow of some key financial indicators such as bank failures, or unsustainable risk loading, or predicting distressed GSibs (bank with global reach the failure of whom will cause systemic issues). The advent of new datasets, increased access to more recent data with higher frequencies and particularly to cloud computing, has heralded the advent of a new breed or prediction model; specifically, those models that utilize network analysis and machine learning techniques.

The aim of this project is to attempt to evaluate the relative strengths of this new strand of predictive models. It will do this in three different ways. First, we will attempt a meta analysis of old paradigms verses new paradigm models to assess the relative commonalities embedded in each approach. Next, the project will bench test the best performing models from both literatures to provide a ranking for the types of distress each model type is best at predicting. Finally, models that are best performing will be evaluated against the, as yet not-experienced issue of cyber attacks and particularly, targeted digital vulnerabilities.

The learning insights that the research should bring forth should be of interest to several stakeholders including financial regulators and the macroprudential supervisory community as well as professional academics and policy makers.

Nottingham Business School is triple crown accredited with EQUIS, AACSB and AMBA – the highest international benchmarks for business education. It has also been ranked by the Financial Times for its Executive Education programmes in 2023 and 2024. NBS is one of only 47 global business schools recognised as a PRME Champion, and held up as an exemplar by the United Nations of Principles of Responsible Management Education (PRME).

Its purpose is to provide research and education that combines academic excellence with positive impact on people, business and society.  As a world leader in experiential learning and personalisation, joining NBS as a researcher is an opportunity to achieve your potential.

Applications for October 2025 intake closes on 1st July 2025 and applications for Jan 2026 intake closes on 1st October 2025.